tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2499715909956774229.post5228633452751631686..comments2024-03-22T22:37:02.639-07:00Comments on Stephen Williamson: New Monetarist Economics: Minneapolis ReduxStephen Williamsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01434465858419028592noreply@blogger.comBlogger45125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2499715909956774229.post-28992346756696087622014-02-14T05:21:24.329-08:002014-02-14T05:21:24.329-08:00Safe Investments-Deposited $1,500 and Received $4,...Safe Investments-Deposited $1,500 and Received $4,500 daily for 7 days<br />You just need to make a direct deposit to our account. Your investment is totally safe because payments are <br /><br />sent directly to the account from which the investment has been made.You do not need to register, this is a <br /><br />full automatic program.<br />By investing with SafeInvestments.org.uk. you declare that you have read, understood, and accepted our Terms of <br /><br />Service<br />Started Plan 1<br /><br /> 200% daily for 7 days<br /> Minimum deposit 100 USD<br /> Payments 7 days a week<br /> Full profit 1400%<br /> Accept Perfect Money,Bitcoin and Egopay<br /> No principal return<br /> Payouts in 0-24 hours<br /><br />Normal Plan 2<br /><br /> 300% daily for 7 days<br /> Minimum deposit 1500 USD<br /> Payments 7 days a week<br /> Full profit 2100%<br /> Accept Perfect Money,Bitcoin and Egopay<br /> No principal return<br /> Payouts in 0-24 hours<br /> <br />Premium Plan 3<br /><br /> 500% daily for 7 days<br /> Minimum deposit 5000 USD<br /> Payments 7 days a week<br /> Full profit 3500%<br /> Accept Perfect Money,Bitcoin and Egopay<br /> No principal return<br /> Payouts in 0-24 hours<br /><br />Vip Plan 4<br /><br /> 1000% daily for 5 days<br /> Minimum deposit 20000 USD<br /> Payments 7 days a week<br /> Full profit 5000%<br /> Accept Perfect Money,Bitcoin and Egopay<br /> No principal return<br /> Payouts in 0-24 hours<br /><br /><br />Perfect Money Proof of Payment<br />http://www.payinghyiponline.com/Proofofpayment/safeinvestments.jpg<br /><br />Invest Here <br />http://www.safeinvestments.org.uk/?payinghyips<br /><br />If you don't get paid I will return 200% of your deposit.100% Riks Free<br />http://www.payinghyiponline.com/safeinvestments.htmlAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2499715909956774229.post-81668876861156864572014-01-26T07:16:56.905-08:002014-01-26T07:16:56.905-08:00Maths isn't economics. Deal with it.Maths isn't economics. Deal with it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2499715909956774229.post-87215671795239963212013-12-27T18:02:38.472-08:002013-12-27T18:02:38.472-08:00Darn, it didn't save the transformation. Just ...Darn, it didn't save the transformation. Just subtract the % change in the CPI from a year ago.CAnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2499715909956774229.post-41202571175504559622013-12-27T18:00:20.272-08:002013-12-27T18:00:20.272-08:00Correction, I meant right after the war. Anyway, h...Correction, I meant right after the war. Anyway, here is a graph of the real rate. And keep in mind that we are talking about ex-post!<br />http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?id=TB3MS#CAnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2499715909956774229.post-3850511942421850092013-12-27T17:41:55.226-08:002013-12-27T17:41:55.226-08:00Anonimo, starting in 1962 is to your benefit. Duri...Anonimo, starting in 1962 is to your benefit. During the war interest rates were even higher. I am still waiting for some data backing your "more often than not" claim. <br /><br />Also, the discussion here has always been about the US. Unless there is a Minneapolis Fed in Brasil. Second, if you have some other country in mind, please elaborate. This way we can check if, for example, there are administrative restrictions on the types of assets people are allowed to hold, which may explain persistently negative real rates for some of them. CAnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2499715909956774229.post-61142466435313958372013-12-26T11:28:30.033-08:002013-12-26T11:28:30.033-08:00CA, it may surprise you, but the world did not sta...CA, it may surprise you, but the world did not start in 1962 and the US is not the only country in the world."O" Anonimohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07896236826318022479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2499715909956774229.post-57341948524351926682013-12-26T08:46:40.368-08:002013-12-26T08:46:40.368-08:00"...Nick's post, he already pointed out w..."...Nick's post, he already pointed out what the problem is."<br /><br />Not what it is - what he thinks it is.Stephen Williamsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01434465858419028592noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2499715909956774229.post-62976798497790136322013-12-25T01:48:17.428-08:002013-12-25T01:48:17.428-08:00Certainly not via assuming that real interest rate...Certainly not via assuming that real interest rates have to be constant and then deriving from the Fisher that low nominal rates have to lead to low inflation.<br />This is arithmetic, not economics (of course there is some bad economics there, mainly the implicit assumption that real interest rates are constant).<br />Anyway, this is just a footnote to Nick's post, he already pointed out what the problem is.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2499715909956774229.post-29567289995880765142013-12-24T21:59:56.554-08:002013-12-24T21:59:56.554-08:00Merry Christmas, Nick and Steve. Am enjoying your ...Merry Christmas, Nick and Steve. Am enjoying your back and forth a lot. Keep up the good work. We'll figure this out sooner or later. Well, maybe later ... :)David Andolfattohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12138572028306561024noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2499715909956774229.post-24710814565918127472013-12-24T09:40:38.344-08:002013-12-24T09:40:38.344-08:00> "it is not just some variable in your mo...> "it is not just some variable in your model that has to behave in a certain way in order that the equation holds"<br /><br />You're saying that as if getting the variables to behave in a certain way in order that the equation holds is trivial...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2499715909956774229.post-37453015178021056212013-12-24T09:38:46.299-08:002013-12-24T09:38:46.299-08:00Nice appeal to authority there, Nick Rowe. Also, y...Nice appeal to authority there, Nick Rowe. Also, you seem to miss the point that the statements about interest rates and inflation that make you and people like you throw a fit are statements about a) the "long run", and/or b) under the ZLB.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2499715909956774229.post-11747440140314158992013-12-24T07:34:18.467-08:002013-12-24T07:34:18.467-08:00So, how should we think about inflation? Explain.So, how should we think about inflation? Explain.Stephen Williamsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01434465858419028592noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2499715909956774229.post-29252306321929684482013-12-24T06:00:55.433-08:002013-12-24T06:00:55.433-08:00"It’s simple arithmetic." This is the es..."It’s simple arithmetic." This is the essence of what is wrong with this old speech of Kocherlakota (thankfully he has learned something in the meantime) and what is wrong with Williamson's "low rates lead to low inflation".<br />These guys can do the maths but they do not understand the economics. Inflation ("we need to add an amount of anticipated inflation") does not fall from the sky, it is not just some variable in your model that has to behave in a certain way in order that the equation holds.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2499715909956774229.post-59104928419129733832013-12-24T04:48:01.022-08:002013-12-24T04:48:01.022-08:00Whatever. Merry Christmas, Nick.Whatever. Merry Christmas, Nick.Stephen Williamsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01434465858419028592noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2499715909956774229.post-42120288217218742352013-12-24T04:18:28.946-08:002013-12-24T04:18:28.946-08:00And, despite all that: Merry Christmas!And, despite all that: Merry Christmas!Nick Rowehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04982579343160429422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2499715909956774229.post-64033491398457577642013-12-24T04:09:42.399-08:002013-12-24T04:09:42.399-08:00And if you want a model, here it is: http://worthw...And if you want a model, here it is: http://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2013/12/getting-the-right-sign-on-the-nominal-interest-rate-signal.htmlNick Rowehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04982579343160429422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2499715909956774229.post-36633358164598089242013-12-24T04:03:44.268-08:002013-12-24T04:03:44.268-08:00For decades, central bankers have been raising nom...For decades, central bankers have been raising nominal interest rates when they think inflation is rising above where they want it to be, and cutting nominal interest rates when they think inflation is falling below where they want it to be. And if you look at (say) the Bank of Canada, over the last 20 years of inflation targeting, which has hit its 2% target almost exactly on average, they seem to be right about that.<br /><br />If a central banker then makes a speech showing he is unaware of that practice and experience of central banking, and says you need to raise nominal interest rates to increase inflation, I say that is stupid. And if any advisor failed to point out the problem with that speech, given the opportunity to do so, that advisor should be...de-hired.<br /><br />Before that episode, I thought that the freshwater/saltwater distinction wasn't really a useful one any more, because it was only a difference in degree, and not a big difference at that.<br /><br />After that episode, I realised there was a big difference in kind. It's not about microfoundations (which is mostly a difference in degree). It's something else. Those economists who can't see any problems with the idea that if the central bank wants to increase inflation it simply has to set a higher nominal interest rate are on a different planet, where Wicksell never existed, and where the practice and experience of central banking is very different.Nick Rowehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04982579343160429422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2499715909956774229.post-63880888700954288962013-12-23T20:01:22.431-08:002013-12-23T20:01:22.431-08:00"Rawr." I imagine John Stewart saying th..."Rawr." I imagine John Stewart saying this after reading some of the back-and-forth above.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11677815746117897839noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2499715909956774229.post-30548234872475443112013-12-23T18:12:38.896-08:002013-12-23T18:12:38.896-08:00Rawr.Rawr.Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2499715909956774229.post-30025929070104473752013-12-23T12:22:49.150-08:002013-12-23T12:22:49.150-08:00I meant to say "the average ex-post real retu...I meant to say "the average ex-post real return...". By the way, clearly you have an internet connection, series on interest rates and inflation rates are available at FRED. You may want to look at them once in a while, you know?CAnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2499715909956774229.post-68591979460669497422013-12-23T12:19:15.463-08:002013-12-23T12:19:15.463-08:00No, it hasn't! The ex-post real return to the ...No, it hasn't! The ex-post real return to the 3-month Treasury-Bill from 1962 until 2008 is 1.27%. And for the most part it has been positive. The only time-periods during which it was negative prior to the current recession were the two oil-shocks of the 1970s and the recession of 2001. For someone who is so generous at handing out insults, there are a lot of things you don't seem to know. Do yourself and your alma mater a favor, and stop embarasing both.CAnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2499715909956774229.post-68929842395699767352013-12-23T12:18:53.123-08:002013-12-23T12:18:53.123-08:00Here's what I said in my earlier post:
"...Here's what I said in my earlier post:<br /><br />" The internal leadership has been shaken up, and top researchers have been explicitly and implicitly shown the door."<br /><br />I wasn't saying it at the time, but the "implicitly" in that sentence refers to Ellen. So, the fact is that she was not literally terminated. But she points out to us how she felt about it. It's actually an important difference, and I think it's important to state the facts correctly. You don't want to blame the victim.<br /><br />It's an important part of the story. Here's why. Pat was fired. Ellen was not. But Ellen feels that, in effect she was fired. So why wasn't she just fired outright?Stephen Williamsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01434465858419028592noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2499715909956774229.post-2794129045965280682013-12-23T11:50:00.081-08:002013-12-23T11:50:00.081-08:00Ellen McGrattan is the one that started the meme t...Ellen McGrattan is the one that started the meme that she was fired:<br /><br />“I had an outside offer from the university, and I was not retained by the Fed,” McGrattan said. “They did not make a counteroffer. Our lingo is to say that you’re being fired, but you’re not really being fired, you’re just not being retained.”<br /><br />http://www.startribune.com/business/232695051.html<br /><br />If you'd like to point the finger at how this false fact got repeated so many times, it must start with her statements. If calling her fired is an abuse of language (and I mostly agree that it is), then you should be criticizing her first and foremost.Charlie Clarkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02079017903923824877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2499715909956774229.post-77514096070652909282013-12-23T11:26:54.738-08:002013-12-23T11:26:54.738-08:00Interesting question. It belies your ignorance of ...Interesting question. It belies your ignorance of macroeconomics. Real returns on safe assets have been more often than not negative for extended periods of time."O" Anonimohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07896236826318022479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2499715909956774229.post-28424089748803419212013-12-23T10:59:33.606-08:002013-12-23T10:59:33.606-08:00"What Japan has done with Abenomics, however,..."What Japan has done with Abenomics, however, raises tough questions for your claims about QE and inflation."<br /><br />So far, we haven't seen enough of Abenomics in practice to know what it means, I think. I'm very much interested in how that turns out.<br /><br />On the second paragraph, see this:<br /><br />http://newmonetarism.blogspot.com/2013/12/microfoundations.htmlStephen Williamsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01434465858419028592noreply@blogger.com